SFFL – 2014 – Championship Week 2

Posted by :Michael On : December 18, 2014

Here we are, 15 weeks gone, still two teams remain, but now one has a 15 points edge going into the final week. One of them will be crowned Champion for the first time and get the trophy finally in their hands. Again, this update will focus mainly on the final two teams this week with the exception of the voting on next year’s payouts. The playoff records I kept this week, but it is the same as last week since the games have not finished. Onward…

Here is the Menu for this week’s update:

Weekly Intro
Deadline Dates
Pick Up Report
Rule Changes
Special Playoff Section
- All-Time Playoff Stats
- Krack @ The Beefalo’s Analysis
Roster Analysis
Power Ranks

Deadlines

Entry Money Due: Monday October 13, 2014 (End of Week 6) ENDED
Trade Deadline: Wednesday November 5, 2014 (Noon) ENDED
Playoffs: Week 13 (1st), 14 (2nd), 15 & 16 (Ship)
Transaction Money Due: Monday December 22, 2014 (End of Week 16)

Year End Party: Voting has Ended.
(A) January 3rd: 2
(B) January 10th: 4 — WINNER
(C) Does Not Matter: 10

Party will be held at Stack’d in Shadyside, as usual. Time will be about 6/7PM.

Pick Up Report

Teams that have been granted 6 Free pick-ups due to paying the full amount at the draft… (LVU*, KRACK*, MSIDE*, BUCK*, FU*, AIR*, MNS*)
*used free pick-up

As of Thursday, December 11, 2014
Lawrenceville United – 18 (120)
MSIDE’s Year – 18 (120)
Krack – 16 (100)
CHAMPS BALSAGNA – 14 (90)
Keystone St. Of Mind – 14 (80)
Cordarrelle Patterson – 11 (50)
|\/|cNAlR’S Mayhem – 10 (40)
Suck My Ditka – 8 (30)
Monday Nightshift – 7 (10)
The Beefalo’s – 6 (10)
Mountain Men – 6 (10)
Revis And Butthead – 4

Current Total (660)

Last year we ended with $400+

Rule Changes

Rule Change from Last Year: Refer to the week one post.
Rule Change Voting from This Year: Refer to the week 3 post.

Voting Ended: How much should we increase to?

(A) $150 or less: 3
(B) $151 – $200: 8 — WINNER
(C) More than $200: 1

Voting Ended: How much should we increase to, exactly?

(A) $160: 1
(B) $175: 2
(C) $200: 9 — WINNER

Voting Ended: How much should we increase to, exactly?

(A) All to the top 3 ($1500, $800, $200): 4
(B) Add some to the top 3, payout weekly/yearly. ($1000, $500, $150) + ($750): 7 — WINNER
(C) Add all ‘new’ money to weekly/yearly payouts. ($800, $300, $100) + ($1200): 1

In next week’s final update, I will provide all of the payment rules and payout plan for next year. I will decide on all of the yearly/weekly payouts and the amounts. The First, Second, Third payouts will be 1000, 500, 150 respectively. The rest will be 750 to split up and the transactions cost and the fact that it goes to the party will not change. If there is something that I decide on that is extremely disliked, we can vote. Otherwise, I’m the Commish.

Special End of Season Section

All-Time Playoff Records

Note: This does take into consideration this year’s playoff teams, #1 seed, and byes, and the first two rounds.

Click to Enlarge

Roster Analysis

Refer to 2014 week one update for a better description of how I calculate this.

Click to Enlarge

Weekly Power Rankings

Refer to week one’s update for a better description of how I calculate this.
Also, the 2014 week two update has a little extra information.

Click to Enlarge

Krack @ The Beefalo’s Analysis & Prediction

Tale of the Tape (Slightly Updated)

Click to Enlarge

Prediction

Current Score: 115 – 100 The Beefalo’s

Krack: How did they get here….

As long as I can remember doing the post draft team analysis on fantasySP, I remember Krack having the best score, or at least the top 3. Time and time again he fell short of making the final game. This year rolled around and Krack was able to pull the first pick, well, ended up with the first pick with Pat dropping down to forth. Draft ends and what do you know? FantasySP has Krack #1 again. However, this time did feel a little bit different. Grabbing a tough combo in Charles and Nelson with the first two picks followed by the huge question in Doug Martin, his team started to look really good going into the season. Well, we all know how Martin has turned out, but guys like Maclin, Miller, Bell, and the Bills D have paved the way for this team all season long. Of course JC and Nelson, too. Swapping QB’s in and out week to week proved to be a decent strategy as he was able to make the right pick and impressive 10 weeks out of 12 in the regular season. The early injury to Charles seemed devastating at the time, but oddly, the beginning of the season was what got this team to the post season. They started 4-0 and were looking tough going into week 5, but went 1-6 and their next 7 games. Staring elimination in the face, they were able to put together a nice 35 point win over another 5-6 team in Suck My Ditka to secure a spot at 6-6. Moving on to the first round they was matched up against one of the season long power houses in Cordarrelle Patterson. It was tight, but a 6 point difference was how it ended and… well, I know so many things can and do happen throughout the game, but that week R. Wilson was stopped on the 1/2 yard. He get’s in and FU would have advanced with a better tiebreaker. Moving on to the second, they ran into the season long winner in Lawrenceville United. There were times that seemed like it would be close, but J. Bell and Nelson had huge weeks to advance. Here they are now, down 15, but favored to win this week. Can they make the second half comeback and grab that trophy for the first time?

The Beefalo’s: How did they get here…

Honestly, after the draft when I looked at The Beefalo’s I really wasn’t scared. Look at it now, and there are some really big picks scattered throughout. Steve Smith Sr. Big Ben, Ravens, Rams, and Gates were all in the 11th round or later. That is some extremely good value. Also, it’s funny to note that the post draft scores. The Beefalo’s were a close second to Krack. Wierd? Maybe not. Anyways, after the first 5 weeks we knew that this would be a roller coaster ride of a season. Week 1 after a devastating stat change mid-week they tied 103-103 with the defending Champs. Weeks two & four, monster 158 and 157 point outings… and then there was week three. 51 points, almost breaking the all-time low. Going into Monday night of week 5 the Beefalo’s found themselves down 45 with just M. Lynch to go. In an unprecedented move, just hours before the Monday Night Game. Majority owner N. Wiktorzewski announced that partial owner C. Wiktorzewski was released of his duties from the team. When asked why the sudden firing, Nathan responded “Reasons? Plenty of reasons. And I mean plenty. But the dagger was an argument over a bag of flaming hot Cheetos.” Whatever the case, The Beefalo’s won their next 5 games and finished the season 6-1 over the final 7. Just missing a bye, but winning the division handily. In the first round they ran into the defending Champions and were able to take them down with an especially big game from the big man himself, Big Ben. The next challenge came in the form of Romo, Forte, Anderson and the rest of the MSIDE’s Year squad. Very big games from Hilton and the Rams D proved to be enough to get to the finals by way of 124-107. Here they are now, up 15, but not favored to win this week. Can they hold on in the second half and grab that trophy for the first time?

The Scores….

Like last week, I’ll just go through and give my players…

Saturday Games
Unless Gore plays and Nate switches him in or Krack decides to go with Jordan Reed, Nate will be the only one with a guy rolling out on Saturday in Antonio Gates. He had a really nice game last week and was the one who I correctly predicted to score out of him and K. Allen. My total scores were way off, but shit, I actually got 21 between the two of them correct last week. Anyways, this week going up against the falling Niners will be an interesting game. For any Madden listeners out there, Mr. Thursdayafternoon mentioned how the Niners are falling apart, Harbaugh’s mind is elsewhere, and SD needs to win and put pressure on the Sunday teams for the playoffs. I can see Gates having a similar game to last week. Few more yards, but no score. 15.

Score after the 1PM Games: 130-100 Beefalo’s

1PM on Sunday
This time we will start with The Beef players…

Big Ben: This is going to be a tough one for Ben and the boys going up against a really solid KC team who is also fighting for a playoff spot. Not to mention Pittsburgh is finally getting a little shittier weather. Now, I don’t see this as being a dud of a game and I definitely don’t see him getting snubbed on TD’s for two weeks in a row, but I see it being a low scoring game and not a huge number of yards with maybe a turnover. 17.

Vereen: The Jets have a really good run defense, but also have not really seen a good rushing attack in a few weeks. Anyways, this is Vereen and that doesn’t really matter too much since he comes in for the passing downs. I don’t really expect the Jets to keep this one close, so he may see some carries in the second half… but I do think he will get used a decent amount. 12.

Tate: Coming off a fairly good game last week and going against a crappy Chicago defense, this looks like it could be another good week for Tate. With the news that Clausen will be starting the Lions could get out to a nice lead and if that is the case may not try and get Calvin hurt before the playoffs. I could see thins being a better week than last with yards, but maybe not a score again. Although, with that same mentality, if they get up big it could be Bell getting the points in the second half. 16.

Smith Sr: The guy showed us early in the year that he still had some game left in him… and he always has that fire. However, after week six he only went into double digits twice, but they were pretty big 18 and 20 point games. This week he is going up against the dead last Texans D (against the fantasy WR) and with the Ravens looking to secure a playoff spot I can see him being used a good bit. The real issue is if he or Torrey will get the ball more (and get the score). Unfortunately, I think it will be the other Smith. 15.

Ravens: The Texans havn’t really been as generous as most people would think this year against opposing Defenses. Still, I think they have a pretty good floor here but not a great ceiling. 10.

Moving on to Krack, who once again has a huge lot of guys going at 1.

Ryan: Another very important game for the Falcons, in the division, fighting for a pathetic playoff spot… and it should be a shootout. The only thing that scares me about this is that it is in NO, which every says is tougher to play in against the Saints…. but but Cam and Jordy were both able to post 30+ points in NO. I don’t really think Matty get’s on that level, but I can see him breaking 20. 22.

Charles: CJ has a really bad game last week and Knile was able to steal some points with a 70 yarder. I see Charles bouncing back in a big way against the Steelers D in what should be a close game. I think he will be the only KC TD of the day, probably not get to 100 yards rushing, but will be involved in the pass game. Will be really fun to watch this game on Sunday, especially with Bell and JC. 20.

Bell: I am expected another solid performance from J. Bell, who has really been one of the most valuable players Krack has had in this playoff run. Maybe THE most valuable. Like I mentioned in Tate’s snippet, I think the Bears are hurting and if the Lions get up we could see a nice dose of Bell… not that he wont be involved anyway, the guy has been flat out playing great. 19.

Nelson: This could easily be one of those games where Rodgers comes in and just starts wrecking shit. Especialy after the embarrassing loss last week. Credit to the Bills though, their D is very good (we’ll get to them at 4PM). If that is the case, then it really just comes down to who the lucky guy is that gets the TD’s (or the long TD(s)). I think he puts up some solid numbers, but doesn’t get crazy (that will be Cobb). Maybe a score though. 19.

Gordon: Man, this guy is so talented, but it’s still Johnny Football that seems to be an issue. I do not see the Browns even sniffing the end zone so Gordon will need to rely on catches and yards, which can add up quickly if he gets the right amount of looks. 12.

Tucker: Is it funny that up to this point in the Season, Tucker and Hauschka both have 132 points? I think it kind of is. Not the greatest match-up for a kicker, but Tucker is good enough and I don’t see the Ravens scoring all TD’s. 8.

Score after the 1PM Games: Tied 200-200 (I would like to point out that I do not at all count up scores or have an idea of what I want the score to look like at the end of each time period. I write a bunch of shit, make up a score, finish all the guys, and then add everything up. So, the fact that this ended up 200-200, with both guys having 3 people left to go is pretty funny IMO.)

4PM on Sunday

Hilton: Officially listed as Questionable with a Game time decision and 4pm start time this is a stickey situation The Beefalo’s are in. Yes, they have a solid replacement in Wallace, but should they pull the trigger early and switch them or wait out the Hilton decision and potentially be left to pick someone up? Anyways, assuming Hilton is ready to go and at least 80%, he will be going up against a fairly decent Cowboys secondary. The Colts are still looking for a BYE in the playoffs, as well as the Cowboys so this could turn out to be a close game, which Hilton would benefit. Scoring and going over 100. 24.

Allen: Since coming back from the injury Allen really has not been that impressive. Take away his TD from last week and he has 3 catches for 18 yards in the two games since coming back. The good news. He did score.. and he is probably healthier this week than the past two… and the Cowboys are 31st against the fantasy TE. All good signs pointing to this weekend. If Hilton doesn’t play, that could mean more looks for Allen, but in the end, I just don’t see him being his old self just yet. 12

Watkins: What the hell has happened to Sammy? Another poor performance last week to make 5 out of his last 6 games under 7 points. Oakland really isn’t generous to WR either.. I guess because they are always losing? Anyways, I think he will break the trend this week with a decent performance and a score. Buffalo has an outside chance at a playoff spot and I think Oakland will have a solid performance this week keeping the Bills throwing. Times Watkins this season went over 20? Twice. Last time he did that? Week 8. This week. 20.

Bills: This is a tough one because of how good that Bills D is, but as I mentioned in the Watkins analysis, I think Oakland keeps this one close. That being said, a game can be close and a defense can still play really good. I’m not quite sure I see them going for 20 or 25, but I can see a score and a 2-3 turnovers. Couple Sacks… and maybe let up 18 points. 18.

Score after the 4PM Games: 250-224 Krack

Sunday Night: The End

Lynch & Hauschka: What is better than the Fantasy Championship coming down to either a Sunday Night or Monday Night game in the last week? Nothing. Well, maybe being in that game and winning it all, but for most of us that’s not the case. Arizona has been relatively tough against the fantasy RB & K all year, but are not at all unbeatable… and, like I mentioned last week, having both the RB and K seems like it could be a good mix. If AZ stops them short, Hauschka can get the 3. I think this might be the game of the week in terms of the NFL so the added drama of the NFC playoff pictures will make this even funner and more stressful to watch as an owner of one of these two teams. So, the Beefalo’s find themselves down 26 points going into this battle. Lynch and Hauschka, can be done….

Lynch: … especially because Lynch loves the prime time games and the games where he should get shut down the most. Now, I don’t think he will get shut down by any means, but I think the Cardinals D is good enough to keep him in check. Maybe one score, 70 sum total yards, and 2 catches. 15.

Hauschka: Which leaves us with the kicker, who will need to make up 11. Well, will need 12 to seal the victory. The game will be close, FG here, PAT there.. another FG there another TD here. About half way through the 4th he will be sitting at 9… and the NFL game will be close. Arizona up 1 and with the ball. Seattle has 2 timeouts and the 2 minute warning. They need the stops now. They get them right after the 2 minute warning. Zona punts, it’s not great, but there is no return. Seattle, with 1 timeout left is on their own 40 and still down 1. Beefalo’s down 2. They drive. 15 seconds left and it would be a 56 yard FG. Wilson runs one more play for 15 yards to the sideline. 3 seconds. Hauschka. 41 Yards. It’s Good. 13.