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SFFL – 2014 – Championship Week 1

And then there were two. Congrats to Nate and Krack for making it to the final test. It seemed as though everyone in Beefalo Land was expecting this from the beginning, even with the up and down scores throughout the year. Krack, on the other hand, had one of his better starts in the Trophy Era and almost watched it fade away as the later weeks passed. In the end though, he secured that birth with a needed victory in week 12 against the confusing Suck My Ditka squad.

Neither team was awarded a bye, but that didn’t stop them. Krack was able to squeak out a 6 point win over Patterson while Beef had a little more cushion with a 17 point win over the defending Champs. The second round proved to be about the same for Beef and Krack with the helps of big games from Nelson and Bell, advanced over the regular season winner handily.

So, now, we sit with the two best teams ready for a huge two week match-up. They are already +300 for getting this far going for both of their first Championships, names on the trophy, bragging rights, and a bunch of extra coin in their pockets.

The update isn’t much other than an analysis of the first week of their match-up. However, the pick-up report, rule change voting, and playoff stats are also updated.


Here is the Menu for this week’s update:


Deadlines

Entry Money Due: Monday October 13, 2014 (End of Week 6) ENDED
Trade Deadline: Wednesday November 5, 2014 (Noon) ENDED
Playoffs: Week 13 (1st), 14 (2nd), 15 & 16 (Ship)
Transaction Money Due: Monday December 22, 2014 (End of Week 16)

Year End Party: Voting has Ended.
(A) January 3rd: 2
(B) January 10th: 4 — WINNER
(C) Does Not Matter: 10

Party will be held at Stack’d in Shadyside, as usual. Time will be about 6/7PM.


Pick Up Report

Teams that have been granted 6 Free pick-ups due to paying the full amount at the draft… (LVU*, KRACK*, MSIDE*, BUCK*, FU*, AIR*, MNS*)
*used free pick-up

As of Thursday, December 11, 2014
Lawrenceville United – 18 (120)
MSIDE’s Year – 18 (120)
CHAMPS BALSAGNA – 14 (90)
Keystone St. Of Mind – 14 (80)
Krack – 14 (80)
Cordarrelle Patterson – 11 (50)
|\/|cNAlR’S Mayhem – 10 (40)
Suck My Ditka – 8 (30)
Monday Nightshift – 7 (10)
The Beefalo’s – 6 (10)
Mountain Men – 6 (10)
Revis And Butthead – 4

Current Total (640)

Last year we ended with $400+


Rule Changes

Rule Change from Last Year: Refer to the week one post.
Rule Change Voting from This Year: Refer to the week 3 post.

Voting Ended: How much should we increase to?

(A) $150 or less: 3
(B) $151 – $200: 8 — WINNER
(C) More than $200: 1

Voting Ended: How much should we increase to, exactly?

(A) $160: 1
(B) $175: 2
(C) $200: 9 — WINNER

The next round of voting will take place next week. Next vote will be where the new money will be dispersed.


Special End of Season Section

All-Time Playoff Records

Note: This does take into consideration this year’s playoff teams, #1 seed, and byes, and the first two rounds.

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Click to Enlarge

Krack @ The Beefalo’s Analysis & Prediction

Reminder: This is only for the first week on the two-week Championship. I will re-evaluate my analysis/prediction after week 15 is finished.

Tale of the Tape

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Prediction

To start things off both The Beefalo’s and Krack do have Thursday night options, but not in their starting lineups. Krack, with Fitzgerald and Nate with the Rams D. With Gordon back, a bad Arizona QB, and Fitz not looking 100% I do not see Krack having a change of heart to throw Fitz in the starting mix. The Beefalo’s, on the other hand, have what I think is a legitimate reason to throw up the Rams D for the start. 2 Shutouts, 6 INT’s, 4 Fumble Recoveries, 16 Sacks, and 3 TD’s over their last three games the Cardinals D has turned it on and playing a very injured Cardinals offense. However, the Ravens have been really consistent are going against the Jags, who have also been extremely consistent in surrendering less than 11 points to the opposing Defense only once this year. Going with who I see in the lineup this one is easy.
Post Thursday Night Score: 0-0

Moving along to the 1PM Sunday Games here is what we got…
Krack: M. Ryan, J. Charles, J. Nelson, J. Gordon, J. Reed, S. Watkins, Packers D, and J. Tucker (8)
Beefalo’s: Big Ben, L. Blount, TY. Hilton, Ravens D (4)

Krack throwing some serious bombs out at 1 with all but one of his players in action, he will look to take a huge league that will make the Beefalo’s sweat even though they have 5 guys at 4. All of the match-ups are favorable for Krack this week with the exception of the match-up proof Nelson and J. Gordon.

Starting with Ryan, it looks like the Steelers and Falcons are primed for a huge explosion of points. Julio Jones, however, is coming in as a game time decision. Even though he has not practice, everything that is being said is that he should play and he should prosper against the terrible Steelers secondary. I look for Matty Ice to have a huge game in this shootout with yards, but maybe not as many scores as Krack would like. 25.

Charles is another person who is coming into the weekend a little hobbled, but is supposed to get back on the practice field and play Sunday. Krack sure needs it. 29th ranked Oakland D vs the Fantasy RB and Charles ate them up this time last year with over 200 all purpose yards and 5 TD’s. I do not see that type of game happening again, but I do see him in the end-zone more than once and grabbing a decent amount of Yards. 26.

Rodgers go-to-guy in Nelson will be back at it again this week against a pretty tough Buf D. He should have a fairly modest like Nelson day. Maybe finding the end-zone once, but otherwise getting looked at a good bit. 16.

Gordon has been a little bit of a question mark the past week and with Manziel getting the start it should be very interesting to see how he does. I can’t see him scoring, but he definitely has the ability to. Cinci will be looking to come back in a huge way after last weeks embarrassing 4th, so I think they will pressure Johnny Football. We will see if the time is there to get Gordon the ball down field… or if Johnny will use him as a security blanket. 9.

Jordan Reed put up a pretty terrible week last week, but this week he is facing the lowly Giants and I see him bouncing back nicely with some grabs, decent yards, and a score. 18.

Sammy will be on the other side of the field as Nelson so it will be nice for Krack to have someone always with the ball in this game. I think the Bills will keep this closer than most think. For a little. Then, A-Rod and the Packers will be up huge and Watkins will get tio see some quality garbage time. No Score. Many Catches. Nice Yards. 17.

It’s really hard for me to try and come up with some predictions for defenses off the top of my head, but I can see GB giving an okay outing and forcing some turnovers to go along with 3-4 sacks. Not sure if the Bills will get to 21 either. 10.

Tucker is a beast. Hopefully the Jags D can slow down the Ravens close to the end zone, but I don’t really see it happening. 7.

Moving on to Beefalo land, like Krack I’ll roll through the lineup starting with Big Ben. The fact that the Steelers involve Bell in the passing game as well as the weapons Ben has grown to have is huge for The Beefalo’s. The Steelers will continue to score on the poor Falcons D, and Matty and the O will keep it close. Ben goes over 400. 31.

The Guess-Who game that is the NE backfield seems to have found their go to guy in Blount… BUT… B. Belichick can happen at any time. The Dolphins seem to have played the Pats pretty well recently but have also been very generous to the run game. I don’t really see Blount racking up a ton of yards, and Vereen will be there to catch the passes. However, I do think he has a decent shot at finding the end zone. 10.

He has done it all year and the Texans are THE worst team against the fantasy WR so far this year. T.Y. “Thank You” Hilton is in line for another monster game. Last time they played he put up 9-223-1. I don’t know if he will repeat that much again, but he may make it close if he busts a long one. 25.

Again, tough to make a call on defenses but it is a very talented Ravens D going against the generous Jags O. I think they are going to get their double digits and even come close to breaking 20. 5-6 Sacks, few turnovers and holding the score low.. the td will be what puts them over the edge. 19.

Post 1PMs Score: 128-85 Krack

Krack: J. Bell (1)
Beef: M. Lynch, G. Tate, A. Gates, K. Allen, S. Hauschka (5)

Bringing in the final points for Krack will be the red hot Bell, who has put up 54 over the past two weeks. I think that will continue this week against a soft Minny D. Racking up the yards and getting a score. 17

Looking to make up some ground, Nate will have 5 guys rolling at the 4PM time slot. So, let’s go down the list.

Lynch will be going up against the tough but slightly-falling-apart Niners D. I don’t see him really ripping them apart like he is know to do, but I think it will be a very serviceable week for the business man. Business as usual. 15.

Golden Tate was looking extremely good this year while Mega was sidelined and not 100%. Since then things have not really been the same. He has been okay at best. This is the week where that will all change and he will look like he did mid-season. Finding some room with Johnson getting most of the attention he will get in the end-zone at least once. I also think the Vikings will make this into a little game so the Lions will be throwing for awhile. Like I mentione before, I think Bell will have a nice outing, but Tate will be involved just as much. Who will get those TD’s? 22.

The Denver/SD game is an interesting one and will certainly have The Beefalo’s attention with both Gates and Allen out there. It’s really hard to judge both of these guys because they have such play-making ability, but sometimes just don’t get used as much as they should. The Broncos are 27th ranked team vs the fantasy TE but only the 16th against the WR. It seems to me like one of these guys will have to score because the Broncos should be up and the Chargers should be throwing all game. Even some garbage points should be in line. My pick is Gates. Combined outing… 5-86-1. 21

Finally, Hauschka will be kicking FG’s for The Beefalo’s this weekend. The aforementioned Niners D has been soft recently, but they still have the ability to halt drives close to the end zone. The good thing for The Beefalo’s is that the Hawks don’t really like to pass that much. They do, but not much. So, many times if it’s not Hauschka getting points, it’s Lynch. I see a nice little outing with a few short ones. 8.

Post 4PMs Night Score: 151-145 The Beefalo’s

Both teams not only do not have any Sunday or Monday night players in their starting lineup’s, but they do not even have any on the bench. This means that we should have a first-week winner after the 4pm games commence. Unless, of course, a pick-up occurs between now and then.
Final Week 1 Score: 151-145 The Beefalo’s


Roster Analysis

Refer to 2014 week one update for a better description of how I calculate this.

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Weekly Power Rankings

Refer to week one’s update for a better description of how I calculate this.
Also, the 2014 week two update has a little extra information.

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Return to Menu
~Staudt

SFFL – 2014 – Round 2

Due to the business of my schedule this week this is a short little update for now, hopefully I will get the analysis/prediction part up before the games on Sunday. Good luck to the final four and the 4 left battling it out for the 1 choice pick.


Here is the Menu for this week’s update:


Deadlines

Entry Money Due: Monday October 13, 2014 (End of Week 6) ENDED

Trade Deadline: Wednesday November 5, 2014 (Noon) ENDED

Playoffs: Week 13 (1st), 14 (2nd), 15 & 16 (Ship)

Transaction Money Due: Monday December 22, 2014 (End of Week 16)

Year End Party: Voting has Ended.
(A) January 3rd: 2
(B) January 10th: 4 — WINNER
(C) Does Not Matter: 10

Party will be held at Stack’d in Shadyside, as usual. Time will be about 6/7PM.


Pick Up Report

Teams that have been granted 6 Free pick-ups due to paying the full amount at the draft… (LVU*, KRACK*, MSIDE*, BUCK*, FU*, AIR*, MNS*)
*used free pick-up

As of Thursday, December 4, 2014
Lawrenceville United – 18 (120)
MSIDE’s Year – 18 (120)
CHAMPS BALSAGNA – 14 (90)
Keystone St. Of Mind – 14 (80)
Krack – 13 (70)
Cordarrelle Patterson – 11 (50)
|\/|cNAlR’S Mayhem – 10 (40)
Suck My Ditka – 8 (30)
Monday Nightshift – 7 (10)
The Beefalo’s – 6 (10)
Mountain Men – 6 (10)
Revis And Butthead – 4

Current Total (630)

Last year we ended with $400+


Rule Changes

Rule Change from Last Year: Refer to the week one post.
Rule Change Voting from This Year: Refer to the week 3 post.

Voting Ended: How much should we increase to?

(A) $150 or less
(B) $151 – $200 — WINNER
(C) More than $200

The next round of voting will take place next week. Next vote will be on an exact amount. The final vote (or two) will be where the new money will be dispersed.


Special End of Season Section

Championship Probability

For more info on this section, please refer to the week 7 update.

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All-Time Playoff Records

Note: This does take into consideration this year’s playoff teams, #1 seed, and byes, and the first round.

Updated to include the first round of 2014

Updated to include the first round of 2014

Krack @ Lawrenceville United Analysis & Prediction

Coming Soon…

The Beefalo’s @ MSIDE’s Year Analysis & Prediction

Coming Soon…


Roster Analysis

Refer to 2014 week one update for a better description of how I calculate this.

Click to Enlarge

Click to Enlarge


Weekly Power Rankings

Refer to week one’s update for a better description of how I calculate this.
Also, the 2014 week two update has a little extra information.

Click to Enlarge

Click to Enlarge


Weekly NFL Pic / Video / Gif

How ’bout some Defense

Round 2? You Know what that means…. This weeks games are worth 300 each.

Return to Menu
~Staudt

SFFL – 2014 – Round 1

Welcome to the Playoffs. This week I have a huge update below with all kinds of Playoffs & Regular season goodies…. as well as a break down of the two Wild Card games this week. You will notice that some stuff has been updated, like the Power Ranks, to only have the 6 Playoff Teams. Just another incentive to making the big boys bracket. This will also be the last week for the Full 12 Team Coaching Analysis and for Pat’s Alternate Standings. The Head 2 Head records has been updated from week 9 as well. There is also new information about the voting winners for the Party and Money situation. The is by far the biggest update of the year, so enjoy on your Holiday weekend.


Here is the Menu for this week’s update:


Deadlines

Entry Money Due: Monday October 13, 2014 (End of Week 6) ENDED

Trade Deadline: Wednesday November 5, 2014 (Noon) ENDED

Playoffs: Week 13 (1st), 14 (2nd), 15 & 16 (Ship)

Transaction Money Due: Monday December 22, 2014 (End of Week 16)

Year End Party: Voting has Ended.
(A) January 3rd: 2
(B) January 10th: 4 — WINNER
(C) Does Not Matter: 10

Party will be held at Stack’d in Shadyside, as usual. Time will be about 6/7PM.


Pick Up Report

Teams that have been granted 6 Free pick-ups due to paying the full amount at the draft… (LVU*, KRACK*, MSIDE*, BUCK*, FU*, AIR*, MNS*)
*used free pick-up

As of Wednesday, November 26, 2014
Lawrenceville United – 17 (110)
MSIDE’s Year – 15 (90)
CHAMPS BALSAGNA – 14 (90)
Keystone St. Of Mind – 14 (80)
Krack – 12 (60)
Cordarrelle Patterson – 11 (50)
|\/|cNAlR’S Mayhem – 10 (40)
Suck My Ditka – 8 (30)
Monday Nightshift – 7 (10)
The Beefalo’s – 6 (10)
Mountain Men – 6 (10)
Revis And Butthead – 4

Current Total (580)

Last year we ended with $400+


Rule Changes

Rule Change from Last Year: Refer to the week one post.
Rule Change Voting from This Year: Refer to the week 3 post.

Voting Ended: How much should we increase to?

(A) $150 or less
(B) $151 – $200 — WINNER
(C) More than $200

The next round of voting will take place next week. Next vote will be on an exact amount. The final vote (or two) will be where the new money will be dispersed.


Special End of Season Section

All-Time Head 2 Head Records

For more information on this, please refer to week 9’s update.

OwnerOpponentWinsLossTieWin %GP
StaudtBambi9001.0009
StaudtAndy/Shane5001.0005
JohnDillion4001.0004
JohnWalt/Beiber4001.0004
KurtKeith3001.0003
StaudtWalt/Beiber810.8899
KrackKen/Justin710.8758
Walt/BeiberAndy/Shane510.8336
PatDillion510.8336
NateKurt510.8336
StaudtKurt611.8138
KurtDillion1021.80813
Andy/ShaneKeith410.8005
KurtKrack410.8005
Walt/BeiberKrack720.7789
KurtPat411.7506
BambiKeith310.7504
PatBambi830.72711
KurtBambi520.7147
KurtJohn520.7147
StaudtKeith520.7147
PatKeith520.7147
DillKen/Justin520.7147
Walt/BeiberKurt520.7147
StaudtNate520.7147
JohnStaudt520.7147
BambiNate630.6679
NatePat420.6676
KeithWalt/Beiber420.6676
BambiKen/Justin210.6673
JohnPat210.6673
Andy/ShaneKrack421.6437
DillBambi530.6258
StaudtDillion530.6258
KrackDillion530.6258
StaudtKrack530.6258
Walt/BeiberNate530.6258
Walt/BeiberPat530.6258
JohnKrack531.6119
DillAndy/Shane640.60010
Walt/BeiberDillion640.60010
JohnAndy/Shane320.6005
BambiJohn320.6005
NateJohn320.6005
StaudtKen/Justin320.6005
Andy/ShaneKen/Justin320.6005
KeithKrack320.6005
PatKrack320.6005
Andy/ShaneNate641.59111
JohnKen/Justin430.5717
PatStaudt430.5717
KrackNate430.5717
BambiWalt/Beiber430.5717
PatAndy/Shane540.5569
Andy/ShaneKurt540.5569
Ken/JustinNate540.5569
Ken/JustinPat540.5569
KeithKen/Justin650.54511
KeithJohn550.50010
JohnKeith550.50010
NateKeith440.5008
Walt/BeiberKen/Justin440.5008
KurtKen/Justin440.5008
BambiKrack440.5008
Ken/JustinKurt440.5008
KeithNate440.5008
Ken/JustinWalt/Beiber440.5008
KeithDillion220.5004
NateDillion220.5004
DillKeith220.5004
DillNate220.5004
Ken/JustinKeith560.45511
NateAndy/Shane451.45010
KurtAndy/Shane450.4449
PatKen/Justin450.4449
NateKen/Justin450.4449
KrackBambi340.4297
Walt/BeiberBambi340.4297
Ken/JustinJohn340.4297
NateKrack340.4297
KrackKurt340.4297
StaudtPat340.4297
BambiAndy/Shane460.40010
Andy/ShaneBambi460.40010
Andy/ShaneDillion460.40010
DillWalt/Beiber460.40010
Ken/JustinAndy/Shane230.4005
JohnBambi230.4005
BambiDillion230.4005
Andy/ShaneJohn230.4005
KrackKeith230.4005
Ken/JustinStaudt230.4005
JohnNate230.4005
KrackPat230.4005
KrackJohn351.3899
DillKrack350.3758
DillStaudt350.3758
KrackStaudt350.3758
Andy/ShanePat350.3758
PatWalt/Beiber350.3758
NateWalt/Beiber350.3758
KrackAndy/Shane241.3577
NateBambi360.3339
Walt/BeiberKeith240.3336
PatNate240.3336
KurtWalt/Beiber240.3336
Ken/JustinBambi120.3333
PatJohn120.3333
Ken/JustinDillion250.2867
StaudtJohn250.2867
JohnKurt250.2867
BambiKurt250.2867
NateStaudt250.2867
KeithPat250.2867
KeithStaudt250.2867
BambiPat380.27311
KeithBambi130.2504
PatKurt141.2506
KrackWalt/Beiber270.2229
KeithAndy/Shane140.2005
KurtNate140.2005
DillKurt2101.19213
KurtStaudt161.1888
DillPat150.1676
Andy/ShaneWalt/Beiber150.1676
Ken/JustinKrack170.1258
Walt/BeiberStaudt180.1119
KeithKurt030.0003
DillJohn040.0004
Walt/BeiberJohn040.0004
Andy/ShaneStaudt050.0005
BambiStaudt090.0009

All-Time Weekly Hi’s and Lo’s

YearWeekHigh ScoreOwnerLow ScoreOwner
20141147Pat87Bambi
20142158Nate74Dill
20143137Staudt51Nate
20144157Nate83John
20145162Akoz/Shane93Keith/Dylan
20146135Justin/Kenny94Krack
20147146Pat60Justin/Kenny
20148156Akoz/Shane114Bambi
20149135Staudt71Keith/Dylan
201410154Nate93Pat
201411141Justin/Kenny77Nate
201412170Akoz/Shane85Keith/Dylan
20131172Pat71Krack
20132157Nate86Kurt
20133142Dill51Bambi
20134172John73Kurt
20135173John70Pat
20136156Bambi71Dill
20137152Kurt88Dill
20138156Staudt88Beiber/Walt
20139175Pat62Bambi
201310158Akoz/Shane68Kurt
201311147Dill83John
201312175Akoz/Shane74Kurt
20121169Akoz95Dill
20122147Keith57Akoz
20123146Pat48Justin/Kenny
20124165Nate81Akoz
20125140Staudt & Krack (Tie)75Akoz
20126141Krack77Dill
20127157Krack77Justin/Kenny
20128144Beiber/Walt76Keith
20129174Staudt92Pat
201210153John62Akoz
201211191Akoz90Keith
201212197Akoz85Justin/Kenny
20111146Staudt91Kurt
20112181Keith90Nate
20113166Staudt73John
20114187Krack86Dill
20115145Staudt69Akoz
20116135Staudt56Beiber/Walt
20117163Staudt71Akoz & Justin/Kenny (Tie)
20118189Kurt59Pat
20119158John73Akoz
201110144Beiber/Walt66Akoz
201111141Keith75Akoz & Dill (Tie)
201112134Pat66Dill
20101158Kurt78Bambi
20102193Krack66Nate
20103176John82Keith & Kurt
20104139Krack50Bambi
20105149Staudt70Justin/Kenny
20106154Akoz81Justin/Kenny
20107144Bambi94Keith
20108123Justin/Kenny68Bambi
20109154Krack91Justin/Kenny & Pat (Tie)
201010158Beiber/Walt66Dill
201011171Bambi100Beiber/Walt
201012146Bambi69Justin/Kenny
20091144Jordan & Matt (Tie)63Nate
20092152Dill78Beiber/Walt
20093134Dill64Nate
20094134Beiber/Walt67Pat
20095157Pat71Akoz
20096155Staudt91Dill
20097143Pat79Nate
20098137Krack80Bambi
20099147Akoz72Jordan
200910160Nate76Bambi
200911156Beiber/Walt62Pat
200912133Staudt78Bambi

Scores by Starters

This is just a section I wanted to do to show show ranges for each team. The Two Columns are just every teams Actual Highest and Lowest scores of the year. The second section is every teams Highest and Lowest Optimal Scores of the year. The final section is something I made up. Essentially, I took everyone’s 9 current starters (based on ROS rankings) and looked at all of their games. I recorded their best game of the year and their worst game of the year (THAT THEY PLAYED IN). Adding up the scores for everyone’s best and worst. TO think of it a little more simply. Think of your 9 starters right now if they all had their best day of the year the same week and similarly their worst day.

Here is the scores by starters for all three types….

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… and here is the Starters Hi’s and Lo’s that I recorded.

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VS All Records for the Season

Basically, what would your records be if you played every team every week. You get an 11 if you would beat everyone that week (highest score) and a 0 if you would not beat anyone (lowest).

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2014 Divisional Prob-Bowl Teams

Sex Division 2014 Pro-Bowl Selections

Made up of players from Krack, Suck My Ditka, CHAMPS BALSAGNA, and MSIDE's Year
PositionPlayerNamePointsTeam
QBManning277Suck My Ditka
RBForte252MSIDE's Year
RBForsett180CHAMPS BALSAGNA
WRThomas261CHAMPS BALSAGNA
WRNelson240Krack
TEThomas150MSIDE's Year
FLEXMaclin217MSIDE's Year
DEF/STBills146Krack
KParkey118MSIDE's Year

Drugs Division 2014 Pro-Bowl Selections

Made up of players from The Beefalo's, Monday Nightshift, |\/|cNair's Mayhem, and Revis and Butthead
PositionPlayerNamePointsTeam
QBRodgers272Revis and Butthead
RBLynch205The Beefalo's
RBFoster183Monday Nightshift
WRHilton201The Beefalo's
WRTate197The Beefalo's
TEOlsen154Revis and Butthead
FLEXBoldin167Monday Nightshift
DEF/STDolphins159|\/|cNair's Mayhem
KGostkowski130|\/|cNair's Mayhem

House Division 2014 Pro-Bowl Selections

Made up of players from Lawrenceville United, Cordarrelle Patterson, Keystone St. of Mind, and Mountain Men
PositionPlayerNamePointsTeam
QBLuck264Mountain Men
RBMurray227Cordarrelle Patterson
RBBell218Keystone St. of Mind
WRBrown260Lawrenceville United
WRSanders225Keystone St. of Mind
TEGronk190Cordarrelle Patterson
FLEXCobb198Keystone St. of Mind
DEF/STEagles186Mountain Men
KVinatieri130Cordarrelle Patterson

Special End of Season Section

Championship Probability

For more info on this section, please refer to the week 7 update.

Click to Enlarge

Click to Enlarge

Click to Enlarge

Click to Enlarge

All-Time Playoff Records

Note: This does take into consideration this year’s playoff teams, #1 seed, and byes, but obviously does not have records/scores yet.

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Krack @ Cordarrelle Patterson Analysis & Prediction

Power Ranks

Krack (4.42)
Cordarrelle Patterson (5.36)
Edge: Krack

Starters

Krack (3.38)
Cordarrelle Patterson (6)
Edge: Krack

Last 3

Krack (350)
Cordarrelle Patterson (333)
Edge: Krack

Match-Ups

This game sees both Patterson and Krack facing the majority of tough match-ups. Krack with one more bad one. One of the more important players in the match-up is Russy Wilson and he is going up against the #1 defense against the QB (SF). On the other hand, Eli is sitting with a nice juicy match-up against the 22nd ranked Jags. 4 of the RB’s involved in this game Charles, Miller, Jackson, and Mathews all with tough match-ups as well. Patterson seems to have the edge overall, but it should be fun watching Jordy and Gronk/LaFell on different sides of the ball Sunday.
Edge: Patterson

Projections

Krack (ESPN:122 & FP:134)
Cordarrelle Patterson (ESPN:126 & FP:121)
Edge: Patterson

Prediction

With a great draft Patterson got off to a really nice start in a really tough division. Another great pick-up later in Forsett and he was primed for more wins and his second playoff appearance in The Trophy Era. After making some really huge moves down the stretch some questioned if he really was making his team better. Now, coming into the playoffs, he has a virtually match-up proof QB in Wilson, One of the best RB in Murray, the best TE in Gronk and some very special WR’s. Both Mathews and Fred Jackson are healthy and Mathews looks great so far. Somewhere down the line he was able to also grab the Seahawks Defense which is finally healthy and playing well. This is a very tough team to keep up with when LaFell and Bryant have big days. At the same time, we have seen a similar scenario with Krack. Started very very strong, even with Charles taking an injury early. L. Miller was a really nice surprise and he was able to snag J. Gordon before anyone else. 20 points in his first week back (without a TD), looks like he didn’t miss a beat in those 12 weeks gone. However, down the stretch it looked as the teams was fading. Production was down for some of his #2 guys, TE, and flex and he was having bye issues late. After taking 3 losses in a row, he found himself in the playoffs a week early against Bambi. Win or Go Home. Making the right calls at QB and having Gordon for his first game back proved to be epic in his journey to the playoffs.

So, here we are with a very very tight match-up judging by projections and match-ups. The games for this match-up are very spread out with Patterson having 3 of his 4 major guns going on Thanksgiving (Wilson, Hawks, and Murray) and Krack having nobody. As they have done all season, those big guns will show up and will show up big. After everyone is stuffed to the max and drunk as fuck… 68-0 FU. A huge lead going into Sunday and 3 guys down, Patterson will seem to have hit a small wall with his back-up RBs Sunday afternoon. One of them finding the end zone but not many points otherwise. However, Bryant will have a nice performance in what could be a shootout between PGH and NO to make up for it. Krack has a few guys playing a 1 to try and make up some ground, but it will still seem like a bunch. Gordon will have another great game and this time find the end-zone. More than once? No way the Bills put up 20+ again but it should be a respectable game with a few turnovers. 1PM games over. 115-77. 4PM rolls around and the match-up everyone will be waiting to see. GB (Nelson) vs NE (Gronk/LaFell). Shootout ensues, and in one way or another Gronk and LaFell combine for 32 points, ending Patterson week at 147. Nelson has a Nelson kind of day with a cool score early and then again late for 26. 147-103 FU. Down 44 with the guys that have been there all year for Krack, Charles and Miller. Charles up first, with a pretty tough match-up, show why he was the first overall pick and punches in a long one. Other than that he has a modest day, but the long TD was big enough to get to 28. 147-131 FU. Down 16 with Miller going up against a tough Jets D on Monday night. He will have a rough go of things early, finishing the first half with 5 points and having a TD vultured by Thomas like last week. Needing 11 in the second half things will look up when he starts to chip away at the yards. However, the Dolphins get in the red zone and Wallace will get the score. Finishes the day with 60 some yards on the ground and a few points through the air for 10.

My Winner: Patterson 147-141

CHAMPS BALSAGNA @ The Beefalo’s Analysis & Prediction

Power Ranks

CHAMPS (1.18)
The Beefalo’s (3.09)
Edge: CHAMPS

Starters

CHAMPS (1)
The Beefalo’s (2.55)
Edge: CHAMPS

Last 3

CHAMPS (1 : 415)
The Beefalo’s (4.84 : 352)
Edge: CHAMPS

Match-Ups

Both the CHAMPS and Beefalo’s are looking at 5 bad match-ups to 4 good ones. However, the Champs have a slight edge in the overall scheme of things. That being said, two bad match-ups in Brady (12) and Vereen (15) could both benefit from a potential shootout with GB. Dez and Tate looking to take advantage of good match-ups on Thanksgiving should be an interesting show-down.
Edge: CHAMPS

Projections

CHAMPS (ESPN:132 & FP:149)
The Beefalo’s (ESPN:138 & FP:135)
Edge: CHAMPS

Prediction

Coming in to this week the CHAMPS are riding the best performance for a team all year (170). Just about everyone in the lineup had multiple TD games. It looks as though, like last year, they are clicking at the exact right time. The Beefalo’s also finished the regular season with a win, but it was not in the same fashion (121). The Beefalo’s have proven themselves all year to be a very dangerous team that can also put up some huge duds (51). Both team have a ridiculously talented WR core with some really sound RB & QB. Both teams also seem to be lacking at the TE position with Daniels stepping in as the primary starter for CHAMPS being inconsistent and Gates slowing down big time the past three weeks. Seems like a perfect storm is brewing for one of the greatest FF First Round match-ups ever.

I believe this game will not be over until M. Wallace is done on Monday night. Tate, Dez, Matthews, and Lynch all have some pretty great games on Thanksgiving, giving both teams a solid chance heading into Sunday. 56-48 BEEF. With more huge games from Brady, Lacy, Big Ben and Vereen… Once the dust clears on the 4PM games Sunday I see this as being a very close game, but the Beefalo’s head by a few with a late long TD pass to Hilton. 138-132 BEEF. That will leave The Beefalo’s with Wallace on Monday and CHAMPS with DT Sunday night. I do believe that the Chiefs will keep it close and actually end up beating the Broncos in a not so high scoring affair. This will still keep Manning and DT throwing and he has a nice 1 score day with a decent amount of grabs. 26 points. 158-138 CHAMPS. All night on Monday, like D’Angelo Barksdale himself, Nate will be screaming “Where Wallace At?!?!”

Finally, in the second half Wallace find the end zone on a short pattern inside the red zone. Like he has done all year. 158-152 CHAMPS. In the forth quarter Wallace will have another catch, but it will not be enough finishing the day with a score of 17.

My Winner: 158-155. CHAMPS


Pat’s Alternate Standings

If you need to know how this works, refer to the 2014 week 2 update.

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Roster Analysis

Refer to 2014 week one update for a better description of how I calculate this.

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Coaching Analysis

Refer to 2014 week two update for a better description of how I calculate this.

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Weekly Power Rankings

Refer to week one’s update for a better description of how I calculate this.
Also, the 2014 week two update has a little extra information.

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Weekly NFL Pic / Video / Gif

OBJ and the Parity in the NFL

OBJ’s ridiculous catch….
Space Jam

Slow-Mo

Real Time

Fingers

NFL Parity:

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Return to Menu
~Staudt

SFFL – 2014 – Week 12

The end of the regular season is just a few days away and the fate of many hangs in the balance. It will be interesting to see how things finish up with the 6 teams still fighting it out for two sports. For reference here is the playoff chances going into the weekend. As for this weeks update I took a few things out (The Playoff Probabilities, Division Probabilities, and Magic Numbers) and I wanted to keep up with the Championship Probabilities, but the app I use to generate those numbers is down (UPDATED). I also did a little research that I was going to hold out until the Championship, but figured why not just post it now….

All Championship Rosters

Here I have all of the full rosters the final week of the Championship in the Trophy Era. Below I have all the players that have won more than 1 and the numbers of players from each NFL team that have won the Ship in this league (D/ST counts as 1).

Rosters

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Players

Fun Fact: Antonio Gates and Dustin Keller were on  both the 2010 and 2012 Mayhem Championship Roster

Fun Fact: Carson Palmer, Antonio Gates and Dustin Keller were all on the 2010 and 2012 Mayhem Championship Roster

NFL Teams

Carolina and Jacksonville are the only two teams without Championship Players. As of right now, 7 out of 10 teams left in contention have a player from one of those two teams.

Carolina and Jacksonville are the only two teams without Championship Players. As of right now, 7 out of 10 teams left in contention have a player from one of those two teams.

As for the rest of the update… everything is as usual.


Here is the Menu for this week’s update:


Deadlines

Entry Money Due: Monday October 13, 2014 (End of Week 6) ENDED

Trade Deadline: Wednesday November 5, 2014 (Noon) ENDED

Playoffs: Week 13 (1st), 14 (2nd), 15 & 16 (Ship)

Year End Party: TBD


Pick Up Report

Teams that have been granted 6 Free pick-ups due to paying the full amount at the draft… (LVU*, KRACK*, MSIDE*, BUCK*, FU*, AIR*, MNS*)
*used free pick-up

As of 11:54AM Thursday, November 20, 2014
Lawrenceville United – 17 (110)
CHAMPS BALSAGNA – 14 (90)
MSIDE’s Year – 14 (80)
Krack – 12 (60)
Keystone St. Of Mind – 12 (60)
Cordarrelle Patterson – 11 (50)
|\/|cNAlR’S Mayhem – 10 (40)
Suck My Ditka – 7 (20)
The Beefalo’s – 6 (10)
Monday Nightshift – 6
Mountain Men – 5
Revis And Butthead – 4

Current Total (520)

Last year we ended with $400+


Rule Changes

Rule Change from Last Year: Refer to the week one post.
Rule Change Voting from This Year: Refer to the week 3 post.


Championship Probability

For more info on this section, please refer to the week 7 update.

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All-Time Head 2 Head Records

Some info on this section….

For more information on this, please refer to week 9’s update.

As for updating this, it will be revisited after the regular season has ended.


Pat’s Alternate Standings

If you need to know how this works, refer to the 2014 week 2 update.

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Click to Enlarge


Roster Analysis

Refer to 2014 week one update for a better description of how I calculate this.

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Coaching Analysis

Refer to 2014 week two update for a better description of how I calculate this.

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Click to Enlarge


Weekly Power Rankings

Refer to week one’s update for a better description of how I calculate this.
Also, the 2014 week two update has a little extra information.

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Click to Enlarge


Weekly NFL Pic / Video / Gif

Last Week I did RB’s… so here are some Recievers…

Watt

Gronk

KB

Crabtree

Evans (2nd)

Marshall (1st)

AB

Even though this is WR/TE week. This was Bell’s reaction when he was told what his stats were for the game. Priceless.

Return to Menu
~Staudt

SFFL – 2014 Week 12 Playoff Picture

After my post yesterday with the chances for everyone, now we can narrow the scenarios with Keystone winning and Mayhem losing. So, here are what each of the six teams need to happen in order to make it….


Here are the current point totals for reference.

Team Points
Krack 1303
CHAMPS 1301
Monday Nightshift 1270
Keystone St. of Mind 1233
Suck My Ditka 1171
|\/|cNair’s Mayhem 1144

Here is each teams scenarios. Each bullet point is a different scenario. For points, in parentheses is the difference in points. Positive means you are up that many on the team (so don’t get beat by that many this week) and negative means you are back that many (so you would need to beat that team by that many this week). The points will give you a decent idea on your chances, but serisouly anything can happen. There have been two weeks where the difference between the highest scoring team and the lowest scoring team for the week was 86. Weeks 3 and 7. I have also seen someone lose a championship in the second week after being up by over 100 points in the first week.

Krack

  • Win.
  • Lose, MSIDE win, Patterson win, Mayhem win, and beat BUCK(+70) & MNS(+33) in points.
  • Lose, MSIDE win, Patterson win, Nightshift win, and beat BUCK(+70) & AIR(+159) in points.

Keystone St. of Mind

  • Win.
  • Lose, MSIDE win, Krack Win, Mayhem win, and beat SMD(+62) & AIR(+89) in points.
  • Lose, MSIDE win, Krack Win, Nightshift win, and beat SMD(+62) & MNS(-37) in points.
  • Lose, MSIDE win, Ditka Win, Mayhem win, and beat TM4(-68) & AIR(+89) in points.
  • Lose, MSIDE win, Ditka Win, Nightshift win, and beat TM4(-68) & MNS(-37) in points.

Suck My Ditka

  • Win.
  • Lose, MSIDE win, Patterson win, Mayhem win, and beat BUCK(-62) & AIR(+27) in points
  • Lose, MSIDE win, Patterson win, Nightshift win, and beat BUCK(-62) & MNS(-99) in points

CHAMPS BALSAGNA

  • Win and BUCK lose

Monday Nightshift

  • Win, MSIDE win, Patterson win, Ditka Win, and beat TM4(-33) & BUCK(+37) in points
  • Win, MSIDE win, Patterson win, Krack Win, and beat SMD(+99) & BUCK(+37) in points

|\/|cNair’s Mayhem

  • Win, MSIDE win, Patterson win, Ditka Win, and beat TM4(-159) & BUCK(-89) in points
  • Win, MSIDE win, Patterson win, Krack Win, and beat SMD(-27) & BUCK(-89) in points

Good Luck.
~Staudt

SFFL – 2014 Monday Morning Playoff Picture

So, I threw together all most of the possible scenarios for the playoffs. I took into consideration ONLY Wins and Losses for Week 12 (NO TIES) and the possible outcomes of tonight’s Steelers @ Titans game. For next week I only look at 4 games that will matter.

MSIDE’s Year vs CHAMPS BALSAGNA
Keystone St. of Mind vs Cordarrelle Patterson
Suck My Ditka vs Krack
Monday Nightshift vs |\/|cNair’s Mayhem

There are four MAJOR SCENARIOS BASED ON THIS WEEKS RESULTS
1. Keystone wins this week and Mayhem loses
2. Keystone and Mayhem win this week
3. Mayhem wins this week and Keystone loses
4. Keystone and Mayhem both lose

I will look at all four of those outcomes and all possible outcomes of the 4 important games next week to estimate the playoffs to give you a better idea of what you need to happen and who you want to root for.


KEEP IN MIND: SOME OF THIS IS NOT GUARANTEED!!! POINTS FOR WILL MATTER AND I AM TAKING YOUR POINTS NOW + THIS WEEKS (OR PROJECTION IF YOU HAVE PLAYERS TONIGHT)

SO, IF YOU SEE YOUR TEAM IN THE POTENTIAL SECTION. THAT MEANS YOU HAVE A CHANCE. I JUST ORDER THE TEAMS AND GIVE THE PLAYOFF SPOT TO THE TEAM WITH THE MOST ESTIMATED POINTS AFTER THIS WEEK.


What you need to know about the charts below

  • Top Part in Green is your estimated points and Wins after Week 11 finishes.
  • The left part in Blue are the week 12 Match-ups and potential winners. Each row is a different scenario.
  • The right part in Red are guaranteed in the playoffs based on the scenario in that row.
  • The right part in Black & Gray are potential playoff bound teams based on the scenario in that row and will come down to total points for tiebreaker
  • For the middle section, that is everyone’s win total based on that rows scenario. Yellow means in for sure, orange means tiebreaker
  • Each of the four major scenarios has 16 sub scenarios. The very bottom section is comprised of the total times out of 16 that a team would potentially make the playoffs.

Anyways, here goes….

Keystone wins this week and Mayhem loses

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Keystone and Mayhem win this week

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Mayhem wins this week and Keystone loses

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Keystone and Mayhem both lose

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Finally, Adding up all four scenario’s we get the following…
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Good Luck & Enjoy
~Staudt

SFFL- 2014 – Week 11

Here we are, Week 11, and with two games left for everyone. We have 4 Teams Clinched (#LVU, BEEF, PAT, FU), 2 Teams Eliminated (MM,RB), 1 Team in hopes of a miracle (MNS) and 5 teams (TM4, CB, Buck, Air, SMD) fighting for 2 spots. Sounds about right.

Also, of the 4 teams that are clinched. Not one of them has clinched a BYE. Yes, PAT and BEEF have clinched there division, but they are still fighting it out for the second bye. Meanwhile in the House Division it will take a good bit, but FU still has a chance of taking the division. If that happens, there is also a chance the both PAT and BEEF get the #1 and #2 spots.

It will be a very tight and serious two weeks to see who gets in and has a shot at the money, while (DON’T FORGET) everyone else fights it out in the losers bracket for the first choice at draft position for 2015.

Anyways, the update is ready…


Here is the Menu for this week’s update:


Deadlines

Entry Money Due: Monday October 13, 2014 (End of Week 6) ENDED

Trade Deadline: Wednesday November 5, 2014 (Noon) ENDED

Playoffs: Week 13 (1st), 14 (2nd), 15 & 16 (Ship)

Year End Party: TBD


Pick Up Report

Teams that have been granted 6 Free pick-ups due to paying the full amount at the draft… (LVU*, KRACK*, MSIDE*, BUCK*, FU*, AIR*, MNS)
*used free pick-up

As of 11:25AM Sunday, November 9, 2014
Lawrenceville United – 15 (90)
CHAMPS BALSAGNA – 14 (90)
MSIDE’s Year – 14 (80)
Keystone St. Of Mind – 11 (50)
Cordarrelle Patterson – 11 (50)
Krack – 10 (40)
|\/|cNAlR’S Mayhem – 9 (30)
Suck My Ditka – 7 (20)
The Beefalo’s – 6 (10)
Monday Nightshift – 5
Mountain Men – 5
Revis And Butthead – 4

Current Total (460)

Last year we ended with $400+


Rule Changes

Rule Change from Last Year: Refer to theweek one post.
Rule Change Voting from This Year: Refer to theweek 3 post.


Probabilities and Magic Numbers

For more info on this section, please refer to the week 7 update.

Playoff Probability

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Division Probability

I am taking this out since 2/3 division winners are locked. The third is the House Division and in order for FU to take over #LVU he they would need to win out, #LVU to lose out, and to outscore #LVU by 81 over the next two weeks. It can be done, but they would need to put up some really big scores.

Championship Probability

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Magic Numbers

Magic Numbers, if you are not familiar are the minimum number of Wins + Losses by the 7th Ranked Team (or first team out) that teams currently in the playoffs need to secure a spot.
Here they are going into this week.

Team Playoff MN Division MN
Lawrenceville United Clinched 0.5
MSIDE’s Year Clinched Clinched
Cordarrelle Patterson Clinched X
The Beefalo’s Clinched Clinched
Krack 1.5 X
CHAMPS BALSAGNA 2 X

All-Time Head 2 Head Records

Some info on this section….

For more information on this, please refer to week 9’s update.

As for updating this, it will be revisited after the regular season has ended.


Pat’s Alternate Standings

If you need to know how this works, refer to the 2014 week 2 update.

Click to Enlarge

Click to Enlarge


Roster Analysis

Refer to 2014 week one update for a better description of how I calculate this.

Click to Enlarge

Click to Enlarge


Coaching Analysis

Refer to 2014 week two update for a better description of how I calculate this.

Click to Enlarge

Click to Enlarge


Weekly Power Rankings

Refer to week one’s update for a better description of how I calculate this.
Also, the 2014 week two update has a little extra information.

Click to Enlarge

Click to Enlarge


Weekly NFL Pic / Video / Gif

Running Backs Doing Work

Lacy

Hyde

Charles

Anderson

Randle

Forsett

… And the only two here that are not Touchdowns, but are my favorite.

Bell & Lynch just trucking grown men.

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~Staudt