SFFL – 2014 – Week 7

Posted by :Michael On : October 15, 2014

You may have noticed the section ‘Other Dates & Weeks’ that I said I would do an update regarding probabilities. Starting this week and going forward I will have the numbers and graphs for every teams probability of making the playoffs, winning their division, and winning the ‘Ship. There is a little more info in that section of the update on how they come about. There are also Magic Numbers for each team that is in the driver seat.

Other than that, Pat has added some stuff to his Alternate Standings, including the remaining Strength of Schedule for each team. Also, for those of you who have not been reading it, he has been putting some statistical notes on each update. So, check it out.

Here goes….

Here is the Menu for this week’s update:

Weekly Intro
Deadline Dates
Pick Up Report
Rule Changes
Probabilities and Magic Numbers
Pat’s Alternate Standings
Roster Analysis
Coaching Analysis
Power Ranks
Weekly NFL Pic/Vid/Gif

Deadlines

Entry Money Due: Monday October 13, 2014 (End of Week 6)

Trade Deadline: Wednesday November 5, 2014 (Noon)

Playoffs: Week 13 (1st), 14 (2nd), 15 & 16 (Ship)

Year End Party: TBD

Pick Up Report

Teams that have been granted 6 Free pick-ups due to paying the full amount at the draft… (LVU*, KRACK, MSIDE*, BUCK*, FU*, AIR, MNS)
*used free pick-up

As of 12:23PM Thursday, October 16, 2014
CHAMPS BALSAGNA – 8 (20)
Keystone St. Of Mind – 7 (10)
Lawrenceville United – 7 (10)
Cordarrelle Patterson – 6
MSIDE’s Year – 6
|\/|cNAlR’S Mayhem – 5
Suck My Ditka – 5
Krack – 5
Mountain Men – 4
The Beefalo’s – 4
Monday Nightshift – 4
Revis And Butthead – 3

Current Total (40)

Last year we ended with $400+

Rule Changes

Rule Change from Last Year: Refer to week one post.
Rule Change Voting from This Year: Refer to the week 3 post.

Probabilities and Magic Numbers

So, just a little info on these numbers. They are generated with an algorithm that takes into consideration your teams previous performances and your opponents (who you play each week going forward) previous performances. With those numbers it simulates every game for the rest of the season a bunch of times and spits out the percentages. It’s not an exact science, but it’s nice to look at.

Playoff Probability

Click to Enlarge

Division Probability

Click to Enlarge

Championship Probability

Click to Enlarge

Magic Numbers

Magic Numbers, if you are not familiar are the minimum number of Wins + Losses by the 7th Ranked Team (or first team out) that teams currently in the playoffs need to secure a spot.
Here they are going into this week.