Okay, so below is the chances for everyone who is not eliminated. I’m like 99% sure on these. I’ll do my best to put into words each scenario, there are 32 of them. I also attached a picture of my worksheet for this is you want to look at that. I’ll start with the locks and work my way down. Here goes…
NOTE: When I say “fighting for a wildcard”, I mean that it will be a tie and come down to points.
Jack Reachers: Clinched Playoffs and Division. No outcome matters to them.
|\/|cNair’s Mayhem: Clinched Playoffs. Clinch Division with a win.
Monday Nightshift: Clinch Division with a win or Ditka Loss. Additionally clinch playoff’s with a Tribute loss. Will fight for both the division and a wildcard with a loss, Ditka win, and Tribute win (MSIDE and BEEF would be in the mix for a wildcard if they lose in this case).
MSIDE’s Year: Clinch Division with a win. Clinch wildcard with a Ditka or Tribute loss. Fighting for a wildcard with a loss, Ditka win, and Tribute win (BEEF and MNS would be in the mix if they lose in this case).
Beefalo’s: Clinch wildcard with a win or Ditka loss, or Tribute loss. Fighting for a wildcard if they lose and both Ditka and Tribute win.
Suck My Ditka: Clinch with a win and Tribute loss (Fighting for the Division in this case if MNS also loses). Fighting for a wildcard with a win and Tribute win (Division would be in the mix for them if MNS loses in this case). Fighting for the playoffs with a loss and Tribute loss (LVU could be in this mix if they win). Eliminated with a loss and Tribute win.
FGLP Tribute: Clinch wildcard with a win and Ditka loss. Fighting for the wildcard with a win and Ditka win or loss and Ditka loss (There are many combinations of teams that would be in the wilcard mix at 7 or 6 wins depending on the other games… BEEF, MNS, LVU, Krack, PAT, and SMD all included). Eliminated with a loss and Ditka win.
Krack: Fighting for a wildcard with a win and Tribute loss (LVU could be in this mix with a win as well). Eliminated with a loss, or Ditka win, or Tribute win.
Lawrenceville United: Fighting for a wildcard with a win and Ditka loss, and Tribute loss. Eliminated in all other cases.
Again, the ties will come down to points so here are the points standings as of now. You can try and figure out yourselves how many you need to gain on someone (or hold someone off by) in case of a tie.
| Team | Points | Back |
|---|---|---|
| SMD | 1394 | – |
| LVU | 1367 | -27 |
| MNS | 1344 | -50 |
| PAT | 1332 | -62 |
| TM4 | 1314 | -80 |
| FU | 1297 | -97 |
| BEEF | 1270 | -124 |
By looking at the table you can get a decent idea of the chances in case of a tie. Anyone going up against SMD or even possibly LVU may have a harder time making up the points in 1 week than going against each other. BEEF at the biggest disadvantage with Tribute, Krack, and PAT not too far behind.
Good Luck,
-Staudt
